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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Antonio Carlos Junior won · SUB R1

Elo1371

Elo1395

Tim BoetschvsAntonio Carlos JuniorUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Saturday, April 14, 2018Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Antonio Carlos Junior won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:28

Style matchupTim Boetsch: Well-roundedvsAntonio Carlos Junior: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Antonio Carlos Junior wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Antonio Carlos Junior wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Antonio Carlos Junior at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Antonio Carlos Junior enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Antonio Carlos Junior threatens submissions; Tim Boetsch has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Antonio Carlos Junior has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Boetsch

Red Corner

Antonio Carlos Junior

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1371

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Boetsch

oldest →

KOvs Josh Samman · Jul 16

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

Antonio Carlos JuniorL3 streak

oldest →

vs Marvin Vettori · Dec 16

SUBvs Jack Marshman · Oct 17

vs Ian Heinisch · May 19

vs Uriah Hall · Sep 19

vs Brad Tavares · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim BoetschMetricAntonio Carlos Junior

2.93

Strikes / min

1.95

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

57%

Strike defense

52%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

3.42

59%

Takedown defense

53%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim BoetschAntonio Carlos Junior

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Boetsch(10 fights)Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.5|Blue +23.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +125.0|Blue -125.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim BoetschTargetAntonio Carlos Junior

By target zone

29% acc · 57%

Head

57% acc · 74%

50% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

39% acc · 100%

Distance

59% acc · 65%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

75% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Boetsch rounds

even

Antonio Carlos Junior rounds

Round 1Antonio Carlos Junior edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:05

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 18

Sig Strikes

31 / 48

38%

Sig Str %

64%

13 / 24

Total Strikes

35 / 52

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

1:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Antonio Carlos Junior	31 / 48	35 / 52	1 / 2	1
1	Tim Boetsch	7 / 18	13 / 24	0 / 0	0

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20

Antonio Carlos Junior

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11