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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rory MacDonald won · U-DEC R3

Elo1373

Elo1357

BJ PennvsRory MacDonaldUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · Saturday, December 8, 2012Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Rory MacDonald won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBJ Penn: Well-roundedvsRory MacDonald: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Rory MacDonald wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rory MacDonald at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
BJ Penn is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Rory MacDonald has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

BJ Penn

Red Corner

Rory MacDonald

Blue Corner

+275

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-335

(77%)

1373

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

BJ PennL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17

SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18

vs Clay Guida · May 19

latest

Rory MacDonaldL2 streak

oldest →

vs Demian Maia · Feb 14

vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14

KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15

vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

BJ PennMetricRory MacDonald

2.76

Strikes / min

3.75

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

56%

Strike defense

62%

1.19

TDs / 15 min

1.77

74%

Takedown defense

88%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

BJ PennRory MacDonald

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

BJ Penn(10 fights)Rory MacDonald(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.5|Blue -15.5

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

BJ PennTargetRory MacDonald

By target zone

24% acc · 83%

Head

53% acc · 67%

57% acc · 17%

Body

71% acc · 25%

Leg

64% acc · 8%

By position

25% acc · 88%

Distance

105

57% acc · 91%

60% acc · 13%

Clinch

63% acc · 9%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

BJ Penn rounds

even

Rory MacDonald rounds

Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:34

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

57Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:22

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 89

Sig Strikes

116 / 203

27.3%

Sig Str %

55.7%

53 / 119

Total Strikes

125 / 212

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

2:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rory MacDonald	33 / 61	35 / 63	0 / 1
1	BJ Penn	10 / 26	18 / 34	0 / 1
2	Rory MacDonald	57 / 92	58 / 93	1 / 1
2	BJ Penn	6 / 30	23 / 48	0 / 0
3	Rory MacDonald	26 / 50	32 / 56	0 / 1
3	BJ Penn	8 / 33	12 / 37	0 / 1

BJ Penn

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Rory MacDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12