Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francisco Rivera has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco RiveraL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Takeya Mizugaki · May 14L
SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14W
KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15L
vs Brad Pickett · Feb 16 John Lineker
oldest →L
vs TJ Dillashaw · Dec 16W
KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 18L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco RiveraMetricJohn Lineker
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.91evenly matched on net striking+1.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Francisco RiveraJohn Lineker
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Rivera(10 fights)John Lineker(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -134.0|Blue +134.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -126.0|Blue +126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Francisco RiveraTargetJohn Lineker
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1John Lineker edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:14
Knockdowns0
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
