Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sean Brady threatens submissions; Kelvin Gastelum has lost 36% of fights by sub.
- Sean Brady has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sean Brady
oldest →L
KOvs Belal Muhammad · Oct 22W
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 24W
SUBvs Leon Edwards · Mar 25L
KOvs Michael Morales · Nov 25W
DECvs Joaquin Buckley · May 26 Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sean BradyMetricKelvin Gastelum
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.31Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sean BradyKelvin Gastelum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sean Brady(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +29.9|Blue -29.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sean BradyTargetKelvin Gastelum
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sean Brady edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns3
Control3:22
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 2Sean Brady edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control4:31
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Sean Brady edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control1:13
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
