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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Dominick Reyes won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1485

Elo1522

Nikita KrylovvsDominick ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Saturday, April 12, 2025Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Dominick Reyes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:24

Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsDominick Reyes: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Dominick Reyes wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Dominick Reyes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominick Reyes at +128 American odds

+$128 profit

$228 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dominick Reyes has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Dominick Reyes (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov

Red Corner

Dominick Reyes

Blue Corner

-152

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+128

(44%)

1485

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

vs Volkan Oezdemir · Oct 22

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Dominick Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Ryan Spann · Nov 22

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25

DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikita KrylovMetricDominick Reyes

4.36

Strikes / min

4.99

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

47%

Strike defense

49%

2.05

TDs / 15 min

0.25

53%

Takedown defense

82%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77evenly matched on net striking+1.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nikita KrylovDominick Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Dominick Reyes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.7|Blue +36.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +637.0|Blue -637.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikita KrylovTargetDominick Reyes

By target zone

19% acc · 75%

Head

36% acc · 63%

17% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

18% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 75%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nikita Krylov rounds

even

Dominick Reyes rounds

Round 1Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 22

Sig Strikes

8 / 17

18%

Sig Str %

47%

4 / 22

Total Strikes

8 / 17

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dominick Reyes	8 / 17	8 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Nikita Krylov	4 / 22	4 / 22	0 / 0	0

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13