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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Chan Sung Jung won · SUB R4

Elo1474

Elo1494

Chan Sung JungvsDustin PoirierUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · Tuesday, May 15, 2012Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Chan Sung Jung won

SUB · Round 4 · 1:07

Style matchupChan Sung Jung: Well-roundedvsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(73.4%)

Actual result: Chan Sung Jung wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -350 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Chan Sung Jung has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chan Sung Jung

Red Corner

Dustin Poirier

Blue Corner

+290

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-350

(78%)

1474

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chan Sung JungL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 19

vs Brian Ortega · Oct 20

vs Dan Ige · Jun 21

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 22

KOvs Max Holloway · Aug 23

latest

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chan Sung JungMetricDustin Poirier

3.93

Strikes / min

5.24

4.52

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

52%

Strike defense

52%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.15

72%

Takedown defense

64%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chan Sung JungDustin Poirier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chan Sung Jung(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.0|Blue +20.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chan Sung JungTargetDustin Poirier

By target zone

43% acc · 80%

Head

40% acc · 79%

80% acc · 16%

Body

50% acc · 2%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

79% acc · 20%

By position

44% acc · 81%

Distance

44% acc · 98%

83% acc · 7%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

69% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chan Sung Jung rounds

even

Dustin Poirier rounds

Round 1Chan Sung Jung edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control2:03

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 2Chan Sung Jung edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:31

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:41Control

Round 3Chan Sung Jung edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns1

Control0:16

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:12

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 154

Sig Strikes

56 / 127

52.5%

Sig Str %

50.3%

149 / 240

Total Strikes

70 / 146

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 4

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:02

Ctrl Time

3:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Poirier	8 / 13	18 / 25	0 / 2	0
1	Chan Sung Jung	8 / 13	28 / 36	2 / 2	0
2	Chan Sung Jung	13 / 25	57 / 76	1 / 1	2
2	Dustin Poirier	3 / 6	5 / 11	0 / 1	0
3	Dustin Poirier	38 / 94	40 / 96	0 / 0	0
3	Chan Sung Jung	45 / 101	56 / 113	1 / 1	0
4	Dustin Poirier	7 / 14	7 / 14	0 / 1	0
4	Chan Sung Jung	8 / 15	8 / 15	0 / 0	1

Chan Sung Jung

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31