Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kamaru Usman has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (54.1%).
- Kamaru Usman has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24 Kamaru Usman
oldest →L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael Dos AnjosMetricKamaru Usman
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.25Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+1.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rafael Dos AnjosKamaru Usman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Kamaru Usman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafael Dos AnjosTargetKamaru Usman
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:32Control
Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:55Control
Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:21
25Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
2:56Control
Round 4Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
41Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:31Control
Round 5Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
34Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:30Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
