Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ricky Turcios enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Kevin Natividad has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ricky TurciosL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Brady Hiestand · Aug 21L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · Jul 22L
SUBvs Raul Rosas Jr. · Jun 24L
vs Benardo Sopaj · Jan 25L
SUBvs Alberto Montes · Mar 26 Kevin NatividadL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Miles Johns · Oct 20L
KOvs Danaa Batgerel · Apr 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ricky TurciosMetricKevin Natividad
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.84Δ 2.45 — meaningful gap-1.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ricky TurciosKevin Natividad
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ricky Turcios(6 fights)Kevin Natividad(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +26.0|Blue -26.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -441.0|Blue +441.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ricky TurciosTargetKevin Natividad
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ricky Turcios edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control2:30
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:30Control
Round 2Kevin Natividad edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control1:26
17Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:20Control
Round 3Ricky Turcios edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control2:21
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:10Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
