Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ryan Spann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Sam Alvey has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
- Ryan Spann has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ryan SpannW2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24W
SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25W
SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25W
KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26 Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Klidson Abreu · Jul 19L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ryan SpannMetricSam Alvey
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ryan SpannSam Alvey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ryan Spann(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +88.2|Blue -88.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -84.0|Blue +84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ryan SpannTargetSam Alvey
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ryan Spann edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns2
Control2:01
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Ryan Spann edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:28
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Sam Alvey edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:32
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:29Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
