Featherweight

3 Rounds

Fernando Padilla won · SUB R1

Elo1497

Elo1494

Fernando PadillavsLuis PajueloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Saturday, March 23, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Fernando Padilla won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:45

Style matchupFernando Padilla: Pressure fightervsLuis Pajuelo: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Fernando Padilla wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Fernando Padilla wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fernando Padilla at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fernando Padilla has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Fernando Padilla has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Fernando Padilla

Red Corner

Luis Pajuelo

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1497

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fernando PadillaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 23

vs Kyle Nelson · Sep 23

KOvs Sean Woodson · Dec 24

latest

Luis PajueloNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fernando PadillaMetricLuis Pajuelo

6.07

Strikes / min

6.03

5.74

Strikes absorbed / min

8.20

52%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap-2.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fernando PadillaLuis Pajuelo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fernando Padilla(4 fights)Luis Pajuelo(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fernando PadillaTargetLuis Pajuelo

By target zone

49% acc · 71%

Head

11% acc · 20%

75% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 40%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 40%

By position

53% acc · 50%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

Clinch

59% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fernando Padilla rounds

even

Luis Pajuelo rounds

Round 1Fernando Padilla edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:47

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 61

Sig Strikes

5 / 13

55%

Sig Str %

38%

35 / 64

Total Strikes

7 / 15

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luis Pajuelo	5 / 13	7 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Fernando Padilla	34 / 61	35 / 64	0 / 0	1

Fernando Padilla

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4

Luis Pajuelo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights1