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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Bogdan Guskov won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1519

Elo1522

Ryan SpannvsBogdan GuskovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · Saturday, April 27, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bogdan Guskov won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:16

Style matchupRyan Spann: Submission grapplervsBogdan Guskov: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(66.8%)

Actual result: Bogdan Guskov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bogdan Guskov is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Ryan Spann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Ryan Spann threatens submissions; Bogdan Guskov has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Spann

Red Corner

Bogdan Guskov

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1519

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan SpannW2 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Aug 23

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Bogdan Guskov

oldest →

KOvs Zac Pauga · Feb 24

SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 25

vs Jan Blachowicz · Dec 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan SpannMetricBogdan Guskov

3.11

Strikes / min

4.57

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

43%

Strike defense

44%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

0.00

59%

Takedown defense

57%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan SpannBogdan Guskov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Spann(10 fights)Bogdan Guskov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.4|Blue +3.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan SpannTargetBogdan Guskov

By target zone

33% acc · 67%

Head

64% acc · 97%

50% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

32% acc · 73%

Distance

55% acc · 55%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

82% acc · 45%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Spann rounds

even

Bogdan Guskov rounds

Round 1Ryan Spann edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:29

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bogdan Guskov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 38

Sig Strikes

31 / 48

46%

Sig Str %

53.5%

20 / 44

Total Strikes

49 / 67

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:29

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bogdan Guskov	3 / 8	21 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Ryan Spann	6 / 10	11 / 16	1 / 2	1
2	Bogdan Guskov	28 / 40	28 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Ryan Spann	9 / 28	9 / 28	0 / 1	0

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

Bogdan Guskov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8