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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Gabriella Fernandes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1542

Elo1509

Carli JudicevsGabriella FernandesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · Saturday, June 15, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gabriella Fernandes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCarli Judice: Pressure fightervsGabriella Fernandes: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Carli Judice wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Gabriella Fernandes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carli Judice at +136 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carli Judice enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Carli Judice

Red Corner

Gabriella Fernandes

Blue Corner

+136

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-162

(62%)

1542

Elo

1509

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carli JudiceW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yuneisy Duben · Mar 25

KOvs Nicolle Caliari · Jul 25

vs Juliana Miller · Feb 26

latest

Gabriella Fernandes

oldest →

vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Feb 23

vs Tereza Bleda · Jun 23

SUBvs Wang Cong · Nov 24

vs Julija Stoliarenko · Aug 25

KOvs Casey O'Neill · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carli JudiceMetricGabriella Fernandes

9.32

Strikes / min

3.51

6.62

Strikes absorbed / min

5.31

57%

Strike defense

53%

0.52

TDs / 15 min

0.42

80%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.70Δ 4.50 — meaningful gap-1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carli JudiceGabriella Fernandes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carli Judice(4 fights)Gabriella Fernandes(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.3|Blue -32.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carli JudiceTargetGabriella Fernandes

By target zone

110

44% acc · 65%

Head

45% acc · 75%

76% acc · 25%

Body

84% acc · 18%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

82% acc · 8%

By position

149

50% acc · 88%

Distance

48% acc · 80%

77% acc · 12%

Clinch

71% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carli Judice rounds

even

Gabriella Fernandes rounds

Round 1Carli Judice edged it

Sig. strikes63

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Gabriella Fernandes edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns2

Control0:45

41Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 3Carli Judice edged it

Sig. strikes79

Takedowns0

Control0:19

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

169 / 323

Sig Strikes

119 / 234

52.3%

Sig Str %

51.3%

186 / 345

Total Strikes

126 / 245

2 / 4

TDs

2 / 8

33%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

1:04

Ctrl Time

2:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gabriella Fernandes	43 / 91	44 / 92	0 / 1
1	Carli Judice	63 / 143	64 / 144	0 / 0
2	Gabriella Fernandes	41 / 67	45 / 73	2 / 6
2	Carli Judice	27 / 51	40 / 69	2 / 3
3	Gabriella Fernandes	35 / 76	37 / 80	0 / 1
3	Carli Judice	79 / 129	82 / 132	0 / 1

Carli Judice

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Gabriella Fernandes

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights6