Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gavin Tucker has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Diego Lopes has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gavin Tucker (53.5%).
- Diego Lopes has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Diego Lopes
oldest →W
vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25W
KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26W
KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 26 Gavin Tucker
oldest →W
SUBvs Seungwoo Choi · Jul 19W
SUBvs Justin Jaynes · Aug 20W
vs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Diego LopesMetricGavin Tucker
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.73evenly matched on net striking+0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Diego LopesGavin Tucker
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Diego Lopes(10 fights)Gavin Tucker(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +77.2|Blue -77.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -784.0|Blue +784.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Diego LopesTargetGavin Tucker
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Gavin Tucker edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:39Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
