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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Josh Barnett won · U-DEC R5
Elo1491
Josh Barnett
Elo1491

Josh BarnettvsRoy NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · Saturday, September 26, 2015Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Josh Barnett won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Josh Barnett wins(79.9%)

Actual result: Josh Barnett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Barnett at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Josh Barnett has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Josh Barnett has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Josh Barnett has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Barnett
Red Corner
VS
Roy Nelson
Blue Corner
-345
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+285
(26%)
1491
Elo
1491
48
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'0"
198.12 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh Barnett
oldest →
W
KOvs Frank Mir · Aug 13
L
KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 13
L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jan 16
W
SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 16
latest
Roy Nelson
oldest →
L
vs Alistair Overeem · Mar 15
W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16
L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16
L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh BarnettMetricRoy Nelson
3.20
Strikes / min
2.18
2.11
Strikes absorbed / min
4.79
57%
Strike defense
46%
1.26
TDs / 15 min
1.14
55%
Takedown defense
65%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.09Δ 3.70 — meaningful gap-2.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1490Strikes22.6 vs 18.9Takedowns0.6 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.57 vs 0.07Form-0.1 vs -0.7
Josh BarnettRoy Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Josh Barnett(5 fights)Roy Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +441.0|Blue -441.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh BarnettTargetRoy Nelson

By target zone

92
63% acc · 63%
Head
38
45% acc · 63%
52
93% acc · 36%
Body
15
79% acc · 25%
2
100% acc · 1%
Leg
7
70% acc · 12%

By position

51
54% acc · 35%
Distance
28
45% acc · 47%
95
86% acc · 65%
Clinch
29
59% acc · 48%
0
Ground
3
100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Josh Barnett rounds
1
even
0
Roy Nelson rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:38
7Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:51Control
Round 2Josh Barnett edged it
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns0
Control2:17
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Josh Barnett edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:37
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:25Control
Round 4Josh Barnett edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns0
Control2:35
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:22Control
Round 5Josh Barnett edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control2:15
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
146 / 205
Sig Strikes
60 / 114
70.4%
Sig Str %
51.4%
215 / 276
Total Strikes
92 / 149
0 / 0
TDs
4 / 10
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
8:22
Ctrl Time
7:51

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Roy Nelson7 / 1322 / 302 / 20
1Josh Barnett17 / 2627 / 360 / 00
2Roy Nelson16 / 3519 / 380 / 10
2Josh Barnett44 / 6565 / 870 / 00
3Roy Nelson15 / 3022 / 380 / 40
3Josh Barnett21 / 3133 / 430 / 00
4Josh Barnett39 / 5057 / 680 / 00
4Roy Nelson4 / 106 / 121 / 20
5Roy Nelson18 / 2623 / 311 / 10
5Josh Barnett25 / 3333 / 420 / 00

Josh Barnett

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights5

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18