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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brad Pickett won · S-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1360

Francisco RiveravsBrad PickettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · Saturday, February 27, 2016London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Brad Pickett won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancisco Rivera: Well-roundedvsBrad Pickett: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Francisco Rivera wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Brad Pickett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Rivera at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Pickett enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Francisco Rivera has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Rivera

Red Corner

Brad Pickett

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1358

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco RiveraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Takeya Mizugaki · May 14

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14

KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15

SUBvs John Lineker · Sep 15

vs Erik Perez · Jul 16

latest

Brad PickettL5 streak

oldest →

vs Chico Camus · Nov 14

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Jul 15

SUBvs Iuri Alcantara · Oct 16

vs Urijah Faber · Dec 16

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco RiveraMetricBrad Pickett

4.07

Strikes / min

3.02

3.16

Strikes absorbed / min

4.63

68%

Strike defense

55%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

2.47

68%

Takedown defense

58%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91Δ 2.52 — meaningful gap-1.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco RiveraBrad Pickett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Rivera(10 fights)Brad Pickett(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco RiveraTargetBrad Pickett

By target zone

39% acc · 86%

Head

15% acc · 33%

50% acc · 3%

Body

64% acc · 36%

89% acc · 12%

Leg

41% acc · 31%

By position

41% acc · 96%

Distance

26% acc · 87%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

Ground

60% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Rivera rounds

even

Brad Pickett rounds

Round 1Francisco Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:03

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Francisco Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:06

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 3Brad Pickett edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:12

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:47Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 165

Sig Strikes

39 / 137

39.7%

Sig Str %

27.3%

69 / 165

Total Strikes

64 / 163

2 / 2

TDs

3 / 5

100%

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

3:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brad Pickett	16 / 54	16 / 54	0 / 1
1	Francisco Rivera	37 / 81	37 / 81	0 / 0
2	Brad Pickett	17 / 58	24 / 66	1 / 1
2	Francisco Rivera	25 / 65	25 / 65	1 / 1
3	Brad Pickett	6 / 25	24 / 43	2 / 3
3	Francisco Rivera	7 / 19	7 / 19	1 / 1

Francisco Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Brad Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14