Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jared Gordon has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jared Gordon has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Paddy Pimblett has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paddy Pimblett
oldest →W
vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23W
SUBvs King Green · Jul 24W
KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25L
vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26W
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26 Jared GordonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24W
KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25L
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25L
SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paddy PimblettMetricJared Gordon
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.60evenly matched on net striking+1.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paddy PimblettJared Gordon
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)Jared Gordon(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +58.9|Blue -58.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paddy PimblettTargetJared Gordon
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jared Gordon edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:28Control
Round 2Jared Gordon edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:07Control
Round 3Jared Gordon edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:35
4Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:53Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
