Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jamie Varner enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jamie Varner has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jamie VarnerL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Aug 12W
vs Melvin Guillard · Dec 12L
vs Gleison Tibau · Aug 13L
KOvs James Krause · May 14L
SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 14 Abel TrujilloL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Gleison Tibau · Nov 15W
SUBvs Tony Sims · Jan 16W
vs Jordan Rinaldi · May 16L
SUBvs James Vick · Feb 17L
vs John Makdessi · Dec 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jamie VarnerMetricAbel Trujillo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jamie VarnerAbel Trujillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jamie Varner(7 fights)Abel Trujillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -9.1|Blue +9.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +105.0|Blue -105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jamie VarnerTargetAbel Trujillo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jamie Varner edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control2:01
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jamie Varner edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:29
Knockdowns0
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
