Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sergio Moraes has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sergio MoraesL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Sep 17W
SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19L
KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19 James Krause
oldest →W
vs Tom Gallicchio · Jul 17W
KOvs Warlley Alves · Aug 18L
vs Trevin Giles · Feb 20W
vs Claudio Silva · Oct 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sergio MoraesMetricJames Krause
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.31Δ 1.99 — meaningful gap+0.68
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sergio MoraesJames Krause
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sergio Moraes(10 fights)James Krause(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -115.0|Blue +115.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -259.0|Blue +259.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sergio MoraesTargetJames Krause
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control2:16
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:18Control
Round 2James Krause edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
47Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:36Control
2Knockdowns
Round 3James Krause edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
45Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
