Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Clay Guida has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Erik Koch has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24 Erik Koch
oldest →W
KOvs Rafaello Oliveira · Feb 14L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14W
SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16W
vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay GuidaMetricErik Koch
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Clay GuidaErik Koch
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Guida(10 fights)Erik Koch(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -6.0|Blue +6.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Clay GuidaTargetErik Koch
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Erik Koch edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control1:30
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 2Clay Guida edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control4:25
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Clay Guida edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control3:57
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
