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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Max Griffin won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1470

Tim MeansvsMax GriffinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Saturday, October 29, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Max Griffin won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsMax Griffin: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Max Griffin wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Max Griffin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Griffin at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Max Griffin

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1492

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Max GriffinL3 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Morales · Jul 23

vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25

DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricMax Griffin

5.04

Strikes / min

3.70

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.69

60%

Strike defense

58%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

1.44

64%

Takedown defense

69%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansMax Griffin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Max Griffin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.3|Blue -21.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetMax Griffin

By target zone

28% acc · 38%

Head

48% acc · 60%

50% acc · 38%

Body

60% acc · 21%

73% acc · 23%

Leg

73% acc · 19%

By position

36% acc · 79%

Distance

53% acc · 83%

78% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

55% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Max Griffin rounds

Round 1Max Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control1:01

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:44Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 115

Sig Strikes

42 / 78

49%

Sig Str %

53.3%

143 / 215

Total Strikes

56 / 96

3 / 5

TDs

3 / 6

60%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:27

Ctrl Time

5:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Max Griffin	25 / 42	26 / 43	0 / 2
1	Tim Means	17 / 49	21 / 53	0 / 0
2	Max Griffin	13 / 29	14 / 31	1 / 2
2	Tim Means	20 / 53	48 / 83	0 / 0
3	Max Griffin	4 / 7	16 / 22	2 / 2
3	Tim Means	10 / 13	74 / 79	3 / 5

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19