Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Natal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1354

Rafael NatalvsTor TroengUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · Wednesday, September 4, 2013Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Rafael Natal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Natal at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Natal has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Natal

Red Corner

Tor Troeng

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1361

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael NatalL3 streak

oldest →

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Tor TroengL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Adam Cella · Apr 13

vs Trevor Smith · Jul 14

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael NatalMetricTor Troeng

3.10

Strikes / min

1.16

2.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

57%

Strike defense

32%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.62

77%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 2.72 — meaningful gap-2.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael NatalTor Troeng

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Natal(10 fights)Tor Troeng(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.4|Blue -7.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael NatalTargetTor Troeng

By target zone

57% acc · 74%

Head

43% acc · 67%

83% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 22%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

47% acc · 18%

Distance

30% acc · 33%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

67% acc · 79%

Ground

80% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Natal rounds

even

Tor Troeng rounds

Round 1Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:47

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:36Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control3:04

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:34Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control2:12

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:53Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 62

Sig Strikes

9 / 17

63.7%

Sig Str %

53.3%

57 / 81

Total Strikes

54 / 66

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:03

Ctrl Time

5:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tor Troeng	4 / 8	10 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Rafael Natal	9 / 12	21 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Tor Troeng	3 / 5	17 / 23	0 / 0	0
2	Rafael Natal	20 / 31	24 / 36	0 / 2	0
3	Tor Troeng	2 / 4	27 / 29	0 / 1	0
3	Rafael Natal	10 / 19	12 / 21	0 / 0	1

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Tor Troeng

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights4