Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tuco Tokkos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tuco Tokkos threatens submissions; Junior Tafa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Junior Tafa has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Junior TafaL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 24L
SUBvs Valter Walker · Aug 24W
KOvs Sean Sharaf · Oct 24L
SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 26L
KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Jun 26 Tuco TokkosL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Navajo Stirling · Dec 24L
DECvs Ivan Erslan · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Junior TafaMetricTuco Tokkos
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.96Δ 3.11 — meaningful gap-2.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Junior TafaTuco Tokkos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Junior Tafa(8 fights)Tuco Tokkos(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -34.3|Blue +34.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +63.0|Blue -63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Junior TafaTargetTuco Tokkos
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tuco Tokkos edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:12
6Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
4:14Control
Round 2Tuco Tokkos edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:15
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:37Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
