Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Lacerda enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Francisco Figueiredo threatens submissions; Daniel Lacerda has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Francisco Figueiredo has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Francisco Figueiredo has 76pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Lacerda (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Daniel LacerdaL4 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Jeff Molina · Oct 21L
KOvs Victor Altamirano · Aug 22L
KOvs CJ Vergara · Mar 23L
SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Feb 24 Francisco FigueiredoL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Jerome Rivera · Jan 21L
vs Malcolm Gordon · Jul 21L
SUBvs Amir Albazi · Aug 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Daniel LacerdaMetricFrancisco Figueiredo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-4.33Δ 3.78 — meaningful gap-0.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Daniel LacerdaFrancisco Figueiredo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Daniel Lacerda(5 fights)Francisco Figueiredo(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -12.8|Blue +12.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -98.0|Blue +98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Daniel LacerdaTargetFrancisco Figueiredo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Francisco Figueiredo rounds
Round 1Daniel Lacerda edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control0:28
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
