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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Luke Riley won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1569

Elo1490

Luke RileyvsKai Kamaka IIIUFC Prediction Result

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Saturday, July 11, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Luke Riley won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:03

Style matchupLuke Riley: StrikervsKai Kamaka III: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Kai Kamaka III wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Luke Riley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kai Kamaka III at +186 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kai Kamaka III has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Luke Riley

Red Corner

Kai Kamaka III

Blue Corner

-227

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+186

(35%)

1569

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luke RileyW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bogdan Grad · Nov 25

vs Michael Aswell Jr. · Mar 26

latest

Kai Kamaka III

oldest →

DECvs Dakota Hope · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luke RileyMetricKai Kamaka III

5.56

Strikes / min

5.40

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

64%

Strike defense

56%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.51

37%

Takedown defense

55%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.24Δ 2.51 — meaningful gap-0.27

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luke Riley(3 fights)Kai Kamaka III(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +78.4|Blue -78.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luke RileyTargetKai Kamaka III

By target zone

57% acc · 70%

Head

39% acc · 39%

90% acc · 21%

Body

80% acc · 17%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

77% acc · 43%

By position

60% acc · 81%

Distance

56% acc · 100%

86% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luke Riley rounds

even

Kai Kamaka III rounds

Round 1Luke Riley edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 67

Sig Strikes

23 / 41

64%

Sig Str %

56%

43 / 67

Total Strikes

23 / 41

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kai Kamaka III	23 / 41	23 / 41	0 / 0	0
1	Luke Riley	43 / 67	43 / 67	0 / 0	0

Luke Riley

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3

Kai Kamaka III

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2