← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1354

Edson BarbozavsAnthony NjokuaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · Saturday, March 19, 2011Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsAnthony Njokuani: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Edson Barboza wins(75.3%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edson Barboza at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Anthony Njokuani has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Edson Barboza has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Anthony Njokuani

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1480

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Anthony NjokuaniL2 streak

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Apr 12

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 12

KOvs Roger Bowling · Apr 13

vs Vinc Pichel · May 14

vs Daron Cruickshank · Oct 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricAnthony Njokuani

4.14

Strikes / min

3.94

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.41

55%

Strike defense

65%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.50

73%

Takedown defense

53%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 2.07 — meaningful gap+1.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaAnthony Njokuani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Anthony Njokuani(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +126.1|Blue -126.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetAnthony Njokuani

By target zone

22% acc · 57%

Head

27% acc · 47%

67% acc · 22%

Body

46% acc · 22%

53% acc · 22%

Leg

76% acc · 31%

By position

30% acc · 96%

Distance

38% acc · 92%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

40% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Anthony Njokuani rounds

Round 1Anthony Njokuani edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Anthony Njokuani edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:25

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3Anthony Njokuani edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:21

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 151

Sig Strikes

72 / 188

30.3%

Sig Str %

38%

48 / 153

Total Strikes

78 / 194

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Anthony Njokuani	18 / 61	18 / 61	0 / 0
1	Edson Barboza	16 / 44	16 / 44	0 / 0
2	Anthony Njokuani	23 / 65	27 / 69	1 / 1
2	Edson Barboza	13 / 55	15 / 57	1 / 1
3	Anthony Njokuani	31 / 62	33 / 64	0 / 0
3	Edson Barboza	17 / 52	17 / 52	1 / 1

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Anthony Njokuani

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8