Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Watson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Nick Catone has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Nick Catone has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Nick Catone has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nick Catone (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nick CatoneL2 streak
oldest →W
DECvs Costas Philippou · Mar 11L
KOvs Chris Camozzi · Jun 12L
SUBvs TJ Waldburger · Dec 12 Tom WatsonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Stanislav Nedkov · Feb 13L
vs Thales Leites · Aug 13L
vs Rafael Natal · Jan 15L
vs Chris Camozzi · Aug 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nick CatoneMetricTom Watson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.21evenly matched on net striking-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Nick CatoneTom Watson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nick Catone(4 fights)Tom Watson(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +135.1|Blue -135.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +231.0|Blue -231.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Nick CatoneTargetTom Watson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Nick Catone edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control1:23
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control1:23
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Tom Watson edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns2
Control1:24
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
