Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- John Dodson has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demetrious Johnson
oldest →W
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16W
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17L
vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18 John Dodson
oldest →W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18L
vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18W
KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demetrious JohnsonMetricJohn Dodson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.77Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-0.38
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Demetrious JohnsonJohn Dodson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)John Dodson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +13.0|Blue -13.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Demetrious JohnsonTargetJohn Dodson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
4
Demetrious Johnson rounds
Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:37
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 2John Dodson edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control0:34
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns1
Control1:22
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns1
Control2:15
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 5Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes50
Takedowns1
Control0:57
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
