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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Erik Perez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1491

Francisco RiveravsErik PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · Saturday, July 30, 2016Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Erik Perez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancisco Rivera: Well-roundedvsErik Perez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Francisco Rivera wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Erik Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Rivera at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Rivera

Red Corner

Erik Perez

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1358

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco RiveraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Takeya Mizugaki · May 14

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14

KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15

SUBvs John Lineker · Sep 15

vs Brad Pickett · Feb 16

latest

Erik PerezW2 streak

oldest →

vs Takeya Mizugaki · Aug 13

vs Edwin Figueroa · Nov 13

SUBvs Bryan Caraway · Jun 14

vs Taylor Lapilus · Nov 15

vs Felipe Arantes · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco RiveraMetricErik Perez

4.07

Strikes / min

3.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.09

68%

Strike defense

66%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

3.16

68%

Takedown defense

69%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91evenly matched on net striking+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco RiveraErik Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Rivera(10 fights)Erik Perez(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -133.1|Blue +133.1

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco RiveraTargetErik Perez

By target zone

28% acc · 71%

Head

17% acc · 37%

67% acc · 15%

Body

77% acc · 43%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

34% acc · 95%

Distance

28% acc · 69%

40% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

93% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Rivera rounds

even

Erik Perez rounds

Round 1Francisco Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 2Erik Perez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3Erik Perez edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:01

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 158

Sig Strikes

54 / 156

34.3%

Sig Str %

35.3%

59 / 163

Total Strikes

147 / 259

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 6

—

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

5:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Erik Perez	14 / 62	21 / 72	0 / 1
1	Francisco Rivera	23 / 55	23 / 55	0 / 0
2	Erik Perez	24 / 56	28 / 60	1 / 3
2	Francisco Rivera	18 / 61	20 / 64	0 / 0
3	Erik Perez	16 / 38	98 / 127	1 / 2
3	Francisco Rivera	14 / 42	16 / 44	0 / 0

Francisco Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Erik Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9