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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mike Russow won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1352

Jon MadsenvsMike RussowUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · Saturday, March 26, 2011Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Mike Russow won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mike Russow wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Mike Russow wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Russow at +250 American odds

+$250 profit

$350 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Madsen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jon Madsen has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jon Madsen has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Madsen

Red Corner

Mike Russow

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon MadsenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Mostapha Al-Turk · Apr 10

vs Karlos Vemola · Jul 10

KOvs Gilbert Yvel · Oct 10

latest

Mike RussowL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Todd Duffee · May 10

vs Jon Olav Einemo · Jan 12

KOvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 12

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Jan 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon MadsenMetricMike Russow

2.46

Strikes / min

1.55

1.18

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

81%

Strike defense

59%

1.32

TDs / 15 min

4.66

70%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.28Δ 2.63 — meaningful gap-1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon MadsenMike Russow

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Madsen(4 fights)Mike Russow(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.3|Blue -138.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon MadsenTargetMike Russow

By target zone

42% acc · 81%

Head

44% acc · 86%

50% acc · 7%

Body

67% acc · 14%

75% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

41% acc · 81%

Distance

44% acc · 79%

83% acc · 19%

Clinch

60% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Madsen rounds

even

Mike Russow rounds

Round 1Jon Madsen edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Mike Russow edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:56Control

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 60

Sig Strikes

14 / 30

42%

Sig Str %

47.5%

32 / 65

Total Strikes

37 / 59

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Russow	10 / 22	15 / 28	0 / 0
1	Jon Madsen	20 / 41	22 / 43	0 / 0
2	Mike Russow	4 / 8	22 / 31	3 / 6
2	Jon Madsen	7 / 19	10 / 22	0 / 0

Jon Madsen

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Mike Russow

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5