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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ali Bagautinov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1359

Ali BagautinovvsGeane HerreraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Saturday, June 18, 2016Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Ali Bagautinov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ali Bagautinov wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Ali Bagautinov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ali Bagautinov at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ali Bagautinov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ali Bagautinov has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ali Bagautinov

Red Corner

Geane Herrera

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1491

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ali BagautinovL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Nov 13

vs John Lineker · Feb 14

vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 14

vs Joseph Benavidez · Oct 15

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 16

latest

Geane Herrera

oldest →

vs Ray Borg · Aug 15

KOvs Joby Sanchez · Dec 15

vs Ben Nguyen · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ali BagautinovMetricGeane Herrera

2.85

Strikes / min

1.51

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

5.07

52%

Strike defense

52%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

0.83

65%

Takedown defense

38%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.24Δ 3.32 — meaningful gap-3.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ali BagautinovGeane Herrera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ali Bagautinov(7 fights)Geane Herrera(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.1|Blue -132.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +69.0|Blue -69.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ali BagautinovTargetGeane Herrera

By target zone

63% acc · 54%

Head

52% acc · 100%

91% acc · 32%

Body

86% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

63% acc · 39%

Distance

9% acc · 8%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

71% acc · 38%

80% acc · 58%

Ground

100% acc · 54%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ali Bagautinov rounds

even

Geane Herrera rounds

Round 1Ali Bagautinov edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control2:43

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ali Bagautinov edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control3:32

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Ali Bagautinov edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control2:11

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

90 / 124

Sig Strikes

13 / 25

72%

Sig Str %

57%

128 / 167

Total Strikes

40 / 52

5 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

72%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

8:26

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Geane Herrera	3 / 6	7 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Ali Bagautinov	41 / 56	53 / 69	1 / 1	0
2	Geane Herrera	5 / 6	17 / 18	1 / 2	1
2	Ali Bagautinov	25 / 33	45 / 55	2 / 3	0
3	Geane Herrera	5 / 13	16 / 24	0 / 0	1
3	Ali Bagautinov	24 / 35	30 / 43	2 / 4	0

Ali Bagautinov

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7

Geane Herrera

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights4