Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev threatens submissions; Leo Kuntz has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Islam Makhachev has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Islam Makhachev has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Leo Kuntz has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25 Leo Kuntz
oldest →L
vs Tae Hyun Bang · Nov 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Islam MakhachevMetricLeo Kuntz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.00Δ 3.12 — meaningful gap-2.12
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Leo Kuntz(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +187.9|Blue -187.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Islam MakhachevTargetLeo Kuntz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns2
Control1:42
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control1:18
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
