Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Trevin Jones enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Mario Bautista has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mario BautistaW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26W
DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26 Trevin JonesL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Timur Valiev · Aug 20L
SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Aug 21L
vs Javid Basharat · Mar 22L
vs Raoni Barcelos · Oct 22L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Mar 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mario BautistaMetricTrevin Jones
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.32Δ 3.48 — meaningful gap-2.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mario BautistaTrevin Jones
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mario Bautista(10 fights)Trevin Jones(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +103.7|Blue -103.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +196.0|Blue -196.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mario BautistaTargetTrevin Jones
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:09
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:21Control
Round 2Trevin Jones edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
