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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alan Jouban won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1399

Alan JoubanvsMike PerryUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · Saturday, December 17, 2016Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Alan Jouban won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlan Jouban: Pressure fightervsMike Perry: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mike Perry wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Alan Jouban wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Perry at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Perry has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alan Jouban

Red Corner

Mike Perry

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1493

Elo

1399

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan Jouban

oldest →

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17

KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18

vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19

vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20

latest

Mike PerryL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Vincente Luque · Aug 19

KOvs Geoff Neal · Dec 19

vs Mickey Gall · Jun 20

vs Tim Means · Nov 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan JoubanMetricMike Perry

5.67

Strikes / min

4.32

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

5.16

60%

Strike defense

52%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.81

58%

Takedown defense

78%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.90Δ 2.74 — meaningful gap-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alan JoubanMike Perry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alan Jouban(10 fights)Mike Perry(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +94.2|Blue -94.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +93.0|Blue -93.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan JoubanTargetMike Perry

By target zone

35% acc · 35%

Head

31% acc · 59%

47% acc · 23%

Body

50% acc · 14%

97% acc · 42%

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

51% acc · 96%

Distance

41% acc · 95%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

40% acc · 5%

67% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alan Jouban rounds

even

Mike Perry rounds

Round 1Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:43

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:24

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 133

Sig Strikes

37 / 90

51.3%

Sig Str %

40.7%

69 / 133

Total Strikes

37 / 90

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

44.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Perry	14 / 30	14 / 30	0 / 0
1	Alan Jouban	19 / 39	19 / 39	1 / 3
2	Mike Perry	11 / 32	11 / 32	0 / 0
2	Alan Jouban	26 / 46	26 / 46	0 / 1
3	Mike Perry	12 / 28	12 / 28	0 / 0
3	Alan Jouban	24 / 48	24 / 48	1 / 1

Alan Jouban

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Mike Perry

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15