Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jake Ellenberger has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Howard
oldest →L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 14L
vs Brian Ebersole · Sep 14L
KOvs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 15W
vs Cathal Pendred · Jul 15 Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John HowardMetricJake Ellenberger
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.93evenly matched on net striking-0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
John HowardJake Ellenberger
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Howard(10 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +123.3|Blue -123.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.7|Blue +48.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.1|Blue +49.1
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
John HowardTargetJake Ellenberger
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jake Ellenberger edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:51Control
Round 2Jake Ellenberger edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:07
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:19Control
Round 3Jake Ellenberger edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:03
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:56Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
