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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Merab Dvalishvili won · SUB R3

Elo1542

Elo1533

Merab DvalishvilivsSean O'MalleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Saturday, June 7, 2025Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:42

Style matchupMerab Dvalishvili: WrestlervsSean O'Malley: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(83.2%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Merab Dvalishvili has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean O'Malley (52.9%).
Sean O'Malley has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Merab Dvalishvili

Red Corner

Sean O'Malley

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1542

Elo

1533

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'11"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 24

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Sean O'MalleyW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 23

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24

vs Song Yadong · Jan 26

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Merab DvalishviliMetricSean O'Malley

4.42

Strikes / min

6.05

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

54%

Strike defense

60%

5.97

TDs / 15 min

0.24

76%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap+2.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Merab DvalishviliSean O'Malley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)Sean O'Malley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.5|Blue -9.5

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Merab DvalishviliTargetSean O'Malley

By target zone

36% acc · 63%

Head

40% acc · 45%

93% acc · 25%

Body

79% acc · 48%

67% acc · 12%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

34% acc · 56%

Distance

54% acc · 97%

80% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

79% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

even

Sean O'Malley rounds

Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control1:54

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:17

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns3

Control4:18

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 115

Sig Strikes

31 / 57

53.7%

Sig Str %

36.3%

141 / 215

Total Strikes

38 / 65

5 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

41.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:29

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sean O'Malley	12 / 23	16 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Merab Dvalishvili	17 / 37	48 / 72	2 / 4	0
2	Sean O'Malley	19 / 33	19 / 33	0 / 0	0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	23 / 63	24 / 64	0 / 4	0
3	Sean O'Malley	0 / 1	3 / 5	0 / 0	0
3	Merab Dvalishvili	12 / 15	69 / 79	3 / 4	1

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14