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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Andre Petroski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1485

Josh FremdvsAndre PetroskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Saturday, July 13, 2024Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Andre Petroski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Andre Petroski wins(80.6%)

Actual result: Andre Petroski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Petroski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andre Petroski has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Andre Petroski (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Josh Fremd

Red Corner

Andre Petroski

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1495

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'4"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh Fremd

oldest →

vs Anthony Hernandez · Apr 22

SUBvs Tresean Gore · Oct 22

SUBvs Sedriques Dumas · Mar 23

vs Jamie Pickett · Aug 23

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Sep 23

latest

Andre PetroskiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dylan Budka · Sep 24

vs Rodolfo Vieira · Feb 25

vs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 25

KOvs Cam Rowston · Sep 25

KOvs Cody Brundage · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh FremdMetricAndre Petroski

2.52

Strikes / min

2.81

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

2.79

47%

Strike defense

53%

0.66

TDs / 15 min

3.15

30%

Takedown defense

86%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh FremdAndre Petroski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Fremd(6 fights)Andre Petroski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.3|Blue -10.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh FremdTargetAndre Petroski

By target zone

67% acc · 63%

Head

45% acc · 42%

75% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 42%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

70% acc · 88%

Distance

71% acc · 83%

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

50% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Fremd rounds

even

Andre Petroski rounds

Round 1Andre Petroski edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:29Control

Round 2Andre Petroski edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:21Control

Round 3Andre Petroski edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:13

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 24

Sig Strikes

12 / 18

64.7%

Sig Str %

66%

60 / 74

Total Strikes

30 / 51

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

12:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andre Petroski	6 / 7	14 / 23	1 / 1	0
1	Josh Fremd	4 / 7	11 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Andre Petroski	2 / 6	3 / 9	1 / 2	1
2	Josh Fremd	2 / 3	26 / 28	0 / 0	0
3	Andre Petroski	4 / 5	13 / 19	1 / 1	0
3	Josh Fremd	10 / 14	23 / 32	0 / 0	0

Josh Fremd

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Andre Petroski

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12