Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Takeya MizugakiL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14L
SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16L
KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16 Nam PhanL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Leonard Garcia · Oct 11L
vs Dennis Siver · Dec 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Takeya MizugakiMetricNam Phan
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.10Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap-2.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Takeya MizugakiNam Phan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Nam Phan(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +5.9|Blue -5.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.4|Blue +2.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -263.0|Blue +263.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Takeya MizugakiTargetNam Phan
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Takeya Mizugaki edged it
Sig. strikes49
Takedowns2
Control1:14
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Takeya Mizugaki edged it
Sig. strikes56
Takedowns1
Control0:47
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Nam Phan edged it
Sig. strikes47
Takedowns0
Control0:04
53Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
