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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Valentina Shevchenko won · S-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1526

Sarah KaufmanvsValentina ShevchenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · Saturday, December 19, 2015Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Valentina Shevchenko won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSarah Kaufman: Pressure fightervsValentina Shevchenko: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Sarah Kaufman wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Valentina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sarah Kaufman at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valentina Shevchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Valentina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sarah Kaufman

Red Corner

Valentina Shevchenko

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1356

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sarah Kaufman

oldest →

vs Leslie Smith · Apr 14

SUBvs Alexis Davis · Apr 15

latest

Valentina ShevchenkoW3 streak

oldest →

vs Taila Santos · Jun 22

SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 23

vs Alexa Grasso · Sep 24

vs Manon Fiorot · May 25

vs Zhang Weili · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sarah KaufmanMetricValentina Shevchenko

6.65

Strikes / min

3.04

4.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.00

62%

Strike defense

63%

0.38

TDs / 15 min

2.65

81%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.65Δ 1.61 — meaningful gap+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sarah KaufmanValentina Shevchenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sarah Kaufman(3 fights)Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -170.6|Blue +170.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -42.9|Blue +42.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sarah KaufmanTargetValentina Shevchenko

By target zone

54% acc · 52%

Head

72% acc · 66%

40% acc · 7%

Body

73% acc · 25%

85% acc · 41%

Leg

75% acc · 9%

By position

55% acc · 44%

Distance

55% acc · 38%

50% acc · 22%

Clinch

94% acc · 50%

90% acc · 33%

Ground

80% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sarah Kaufman rounds

even

Valentina Shevchenko rounds

Round 1Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:06

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 2Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:19

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:15Control

Round 3Sarah Kaufman edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control3:27

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 44

Sig Strikes

32 / 44

62.7%

Sig Str %

70%

142 / 172

Total Strikes

66 / 78

1 / 4

TDs

4 / 9

16.7%

TD %

56.7%

Sub Att

Rev

4:52

Ctrl Time

6:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Valentina Shevchenko	15 / 20	27 / 32	2 / 2
1	Sarah Kaufman	8 / 17	32 / 41	0 / 1
2	Valentina Shevchenko	12 / 15	26 / 29	1 / 5
2	Sarah Kaufman	10 / 15	50 / 68	0 / 1
3	Valentina Shevchenko	5 / 9	13 / 17	1 / 2
3	Sarah Kaufman	9 / 12	60 / 63	1 / 2

Sarah Kaufman

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights18