Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bekzat Almakhan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Brad Katona has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Brad Katona has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Bekzat Almakhan has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brad Katona
oldest →L
vs Hunter Azure · Sep 19L
vs Garrett Armfield · Jan 24W
vs Jesse Butler · Jun 24L
vs Jean Matsumoto · Oct 24 Bekzat AlmakhanL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 24L
vs Aleksandre Topuria · Nov 25L
DECvs Jean Matsumoto · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brad KatonaMetricBekzat Almakhan
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.06Δ 2.18 — meaningful gap-2.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brad KatonaBekzat Almakhan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brad Katona(9 fights)Bekzat Almakhan(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +21.7|Blue -21.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -231.0|Blue +231.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brad KatonaTargetBekzat Almakhan
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Bekzat Almakhan edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
