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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Malott won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1552

Elo1526

Mike MalottvsCharles RadtkeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · Saturday, May 10, 2025Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Mike Malott won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:26

Style matchupMike Malott: Well-roundedvsCharles Radtke: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Mike Malott wins(75.0%)

Actual result: Mike Malott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Malott at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Malott enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Charles Radtke enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Charles Radtke has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Malott

Red Corner

Charles Radtke

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+168

(37%)

1552

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike MalottW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Adam Fugitt · Jun 23

KOvs Neil Magny · Jan 24

vs Trevin Giles · Nov 24

vs Kevin Holland · Oct 25

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Apr 26

latest

Charles RadtkeW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gilbert Urbina · Feb 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Jun 24

KOvs Matthew Semelsberger · Nov 24

SUBvs Daniel Frunza · Nov 25

DECvs Francisco Prado · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike MalottMetricCharles Radtke

4.02

Strikes / min

2.50

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

2.45

56%

Strike defense

54%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

1.99

57%

Takedown defense

100%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93evenly matched on net striking+0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike MalottCharles Radtke

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Malott(8 fights)Charles Radtke(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.4|Blue -25.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike MalottTargetCharles Radtke

By target zone

50% acc · 58%

Head

29% acc · 90%

56% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 28%

Leg

50% acc · 10%

By position

55% acc · 78%

Distance

29% acc · 90%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

50% acc · 10%

86% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Malott rounds

even

Charles Radtke rounds

Round 1Mike Malott edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mike Malott edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 61

Sig Strikes

10 / 33

60.5%

Sig Str %

17%

36 / 61

Total Strikes

10 / 33

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Charles Radtke	10 / 29	10 / 29	0 / 0
1	Mike Malott	27 / 47	27 / 47	0 / 0
2	Charles Radtke	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 0
2	Mike Malott	9 / 14	9 / 14	0 / 0

Mike Malott

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Charles Radtke

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6