Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jake Ellenberger is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rory MacDonald has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16 Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rory MacDonaldMetricJake Ellenberger
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.95Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rory MacDonaldJake Ellenberger
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -10.0|Blue +10.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rory MacDonaldTargetJake Ellenberger
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
