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Strawweight

3 Rounds

Shanelle Dyer won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1521

Elo1494

Shanelle DyervsElise ReedUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Saturday, August 22, 2026Sacramento, USA

Official fight result

Shanelle Dyer won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:42

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Shanelle Dyer

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Shanelle Dyer at -609 American odds · hypothetical only

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Style matchupShanelle Dyer: Pressure fightervsElise Reed: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shanelle Dyer is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Elise Reed has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Shanelle Dyer has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Shanelle Dyer

Red Corner

Elise Reed

Blue Corner

-609

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+431

(19%)

1521

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shanelle Dyer

oldest →

KOvs Ravena Oliveira · Mar 26

latest

Elise Reed

oldest →

SUBvs Loma Lookboonmee · Feb 23

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Jun 23

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Penne · Oct 24

KOvs Denise Gomes · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shanelle DyerMetricElise Reed

7.71

Strikes / min

3.41

6.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

51%

Strike defense

51%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.46

100%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shanelle Dyer(1 fights)Elise Reed(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.7|Blue -26.7

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -308.0|Blue +308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shanelle DyerTargetElise Reed

By target zone

53% acc · 62%

Head

27% acc · 27%

91% acc · 21%

Body

68% acc · 43%

85% acc · 17%

Leg

63% acc · 31%

By position

114

60% acc · 84%

Distance

45% acc · 90%

85% acc · 16%

Clinch

71% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shanelle Dyer rounds

even

Elise Reed rounds

Round 1Shanelle Dyer edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:38

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Shanelle Dyer edged it

Sig. strikes66

Takedowns1

Control0:46

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Shanelle Dyer edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

136 / 217

Sig Strikes

49 / 104

61%

Sig Str %

46.7%

139 / 220

Total Strikes

59 / 115

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:24

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Elise Reed	19 / 40	28 / 50	0 / 0
1	Shanelle Dyer	37 / 63	38 / 64	0 / 0
2	Elise Reed	20 / 43	21 / 44	0 / 0
2	Shanelle Dyer	66 / 98	67 / 99	1 / 1
3	Elise Reed	10 / 21	10 / 21	0 / 0
3	Shanelle Dyer	33 / 56	34 / 57	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Shanelle Dyer

Odds

-609

Market-implied probability

Shanelle Dyer 82%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Shanelle Dyer (model pick · research)$116

Elise Reed$531

82% market-implied · model 64% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC · never rewritten

Shanelle Dyer

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights2

Elise Reed

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights10