Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Kamaru Usman has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
- Kamaru Usman has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Warlley AlvesL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21L
KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21L
vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23L
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23L
vs Abus Magomedov · May 24 Kamaru Usman
oldest →L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Warlley AlvesMetricKamaru Usman
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.91Δ 2.40 — meaningful gap+1.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Warlley AlvesKamaru Usman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Warlley Alves(10 fights)Kamaru Usman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Warlley AlvesTargetKamaru Usman
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:40Control
Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:41Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
