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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jared Gooden won · SUB R2

Elo1484

Wellington Turman editorial illustration

Elo1495

Wellington TurmanvsJared GoodenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Saturday, December 2, 2023Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jared Gooden won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:11

Model Prediction: Wellington Turman wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Jared Gooden wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Gooden enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jared Gooden has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jared Gooden has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Wellington Turman

Red Corner

Jared Gooden

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1484

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Wellington TurmanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 21

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 21

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Feb 22

vs Andre Petroski · Nov 22

vs Randy Brown · Jun 23

latest

Jared GoodenL3 streak

oldest →

vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov · Mar 21

KOvs Niklas Stolze · Jul 21

vs Randy Brown · Oct 21

vs Carlston Harris · Mar 23

vs Chidi Njokuani · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Wellington TurmanMetricJared Gooden

3.23

Strikes / min

4.40

4.17

Strikes absorbed / min

6.74

45%

Strike defense

45%

1.55

TDs / 15 min

0.91

42%

Takedown defense

65%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.94Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap-2.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Wellington TurmanJared Gooden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Wellington Turman(9 fights)Jared Gooden(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.8|Blue +10.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Wellington TurmanTargetJared Gooden

By target zone

57% acc · 73%

Head

56% acc · 62%

100% acc · 5%

Body

78% acc · 26%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

65% acc · 86%

Distance

60% acc · 81%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

50% acc · 8%

Ground

90% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Wellington Turman rounds

even

Jared Gooden rounds

Round 1Wellington Turman edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control1:40

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jared Gooden edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 57

Sig Strikes

53 / 83

68.5%

Sig Str %

66.5%

46 / 73

Total Strikes

62 / 95

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:40

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jared Gooden	28 / 52	33 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Wellington Turman	27 / 44	36 / 60	1 / 1	0
2	Jared Gooden	25 / 31	29 / 37	1 / 1	1
2	Wellington Turman	10 / 13	10 / 13	0 / 0	0

Wellington Turman

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Jared Gooden

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7