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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Josh Samman won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1357

Elo1358

Josh SammanvsKevin CaseyUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale · Saturday, April 13, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josh Samman won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:17

Model Prediction: Kevin Casey wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Josh Samman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Casey at +405 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Samman is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Kevin Casey has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Kevin Casey has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Kevin Casey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Josh Samman

Red Corner

Kevin Casey

Blue Corner

-455

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+405

(20%)

1357

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

5'11"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh SammanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Eddie Gordon · Dec 14

SUBvs Caio Magalhaes · Jul 15

SUBvs Tamdan McCrory · Dec 15

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jul 16

latest

Kevin CaseyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jul 15

KOvs Rafael Natal · Jan 16

KOvs Sam Alvey · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh SammanMetricKevin Casey

2.08

Strikes / min

2.27

2.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.76

34%

Strike defense

46%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

0.79

33%

Takedown defense

27%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-1.49

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Samman(5 fights)Kevin Casey(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh SammanTargetKevin Casey

By target zone

39% acc · 36%

Head

60% acc · 64%

78% acc · 58%

Body

71% acc · 36%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 3%

Distance

0% acc

64% acc · 83%

Clinch

100% acc · 21%

42% acc · 14%

Ground

69% acc · 79%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Samman rounds

even

Kevin Casey rounds

Round 1Kevin Casey edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:13

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:13Control

Round 2Josh Samman edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:04

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 62

Sig Strikes

14 / 22

57%

Sig Str %

64.5%

55 / 83

Total Strikes

64 / 76

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:17

Ctrl Time

3:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Casey	12 / 19	45 / 54	0 / 0	2
1	Josh Samman	13 / 23	17 / 27	0 / 0	0
2	Kevin Casey	2 / 3	19 / 22	0 / 1	0
2	Josh Samman	23 / 39	38 / 56	0 / 0	0

Josh Samman

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5

Kevin Casey

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4