Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Page enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Michael Page has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Page (52.9%).
- Michael Page has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ian Machado GarryW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24W
vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25W
vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25 Michael PageW4 streak
oldest →W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 24W
vs Shara Magomedov · Feb 25W
vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 25W
vs Sam Patterson · Mar 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ian Machado GarryMetricMichael Page
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.92Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap+0.77
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ian Machado GarryMichael Page
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)Michael Page(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -4.4|Blue +4.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ian Machado GarryTargetMichael Page
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
2
Ian Machado Garry rounds
Round 1Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control3:52
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Michael Page edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control1:41
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Round 3Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control1:56
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:37Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
