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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Gustafsson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1430

Elo1493

Alexander GustafssonvsJan BlachowiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · Saturday, September 3, 2016Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Alexander Gustafsson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fightervsJan Blachowicz: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jan Blachowicz wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jan Blachowicz at +500 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Gustafsson

Red Corner

Jan Blachowicz

Blue Corner

-700

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1430

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander GustafssonMetricJan Blachowicz

4.03

Strikes / min

3.55

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

51%

Strike defense

52%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

0.98

83%

Takedown defense

69%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander GustafssonJan Blachowicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +190.0|Blue -190.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander GustafssonTargetJan Blachowicz

By target zone

47% acc · 86%

Head

25% acc · 64%

100% acc · 6%

Body

53% acc · 29%

80% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

26% acc · 30%

Distance

30% acc · 86%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 11%

80% acc · 66%

Ground

33% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

even

Jan Blachowicz rounds

Round 1Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:22

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control4:41

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control3:40

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 100

Sig Strikes

28 / 90

52.3%

Sig Str %

26.3%

139 / 201

Total Strikes

55 / 125

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

83.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

10:43

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jan Blachowicz	19 / 53	26 / 61	0 / 0
1	Alexander Gustafsson	19 / 48	30 / 59	1 / 2
2	Jan Blachowicz	2 / 12	12 / 29	0 / 0
2	Alexander Gustafsson	14 / 25	51 / 68	1 / 1
3	Jan Blachowicz	7 / 25	17 / 35	0 / 1
3	Alexander Gustafsson	17 / 27	58 / 74	2 / 2

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21