Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tim Means has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Ricky Rainey (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim MeansL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23W
KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23L
KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24L
SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24 Ricky Rainey
oldest →L
KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Apr 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim MeansMetricRicky Rainey
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.39Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tim MeansRicky Rainey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Means(10 fights)Ricky Rainey(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +122.6|Blue -122.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.9|Blue -2.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tim MeansTargetRicky Rainey
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tim Means edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns2
Control0:33
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
