Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Alves has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Papy Abedi (53.5%).
- Papy Abedi has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago AlvesL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18L
vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18L
vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19L
SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19 Papy Abedi
oldest →L
SUBvs James Head · Apr 12W
vs Besam Yousef · Apr 13L
KOvs Dylan Andrews · Aug 13 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago AlvesMetricPapy Abedi
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago AlvesPapy Abedi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Alves(10 fights)Papy Abedi(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -111.7|Blue +111.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.0|Blue +48.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago AlvesTargetPapy Abedi
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Thiago Alves edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:31
Knockdowns1
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:41Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
