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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Yair Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Yair RodriguezvsPatricio FreireUFC Prediction Result

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Saturday, April 12, 2025Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Yair Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(77.9%)

Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yair Rodriguez at -164 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yair Rodriguez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yair Rodriguez

Red Corner

Patricio Freire

Blue Corner

-164

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+138

(42%)

1504

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yair RodriguezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Nov 21

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24

latest

Patricio Freire

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yair RodriguezMetricPatricio Freire

4.65

Strikes / min

—

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

—

52%

Strike defense

—

0.71

TDs / 15 min

—

59%

Takedown defense

—

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yair RodriguezPatricio Freire

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Patricio Freire(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

Patricio Freire

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights2